Oilquake in the Middle East

Everything now happening is just the first tremor of an oilquake that will shake our world to its core. The old oil order is dying, and with its demise we will see the end of cheap and readily accessible petroleum... forever.

It’s been the Middle East that has quenched the world’s thirst for oil since World War II. More than any other area, the Middle East has funneled its production to satisfy the energy cravings of oil-importing powers like the United States, China, Japan, and the European Union (EU).... 20 million barrels funneled into export markets every day... (approximately 43% of the world’s crude petroleum supply by 2035).

The world economy requires an increasing supply of affordable petroleum... the Middle East alone can provide that supply. Don’t count on any new order to deliver enough cheap oil to preserve the Petroleum Age. All powers watching the uprisings, rebellions, and protests blazing through the Middle East should be wary indeed: whatever their political or religious desires, local populations always turn out to harbor a fierce, passionate hostility to foreign domination and, in a crunch, will choose independence and the possibility of freedom over increased oil output.

The old Middle Eastern oil order cannot be reconstructed.... the result is sure to be a long-term decline in the future availability of exportable petroleum. Since no other area is capable of replacing the Middle East as the world’s premier oil exporter, the oil economy will shrivel, and with it, the global economy as a whole. The recent rise in the price of oil just a faint and early tremor heralding the oilquake to come. Oil won’t disappear from international markets, but in the coming decades it will never reach the volumes needed to satisfy projected world demand, which means that, sooner rather than later, scarcity will become the dominant market condition.

Only the rapid development of alternative sources of energy, and a dramatic reduction in oil consumption might spare the world the most severe economic repercussions.


Tomgram: Michael Klare, Oilquake in the Middle East | TomDispatch